Misunderstanding Iran, Falling in its Trap

Posted on June 15, 2008
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Amir Taheri is a well known Iranian born journalist. He writes for many prestigious publications throughout the world, while attracting his share of controversy, his knowledge and understanding of how the Ayatollahs’ minds work are indisputable. In Today’s edition of the New York Post, he writes:

BOMBS AWAY
WHY THE US POLICY ISN’T WORKING – AND IRAN WILL GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS

“Hit us and we shall hit you ten times harder!” This is how General Muhammad-Ali Jaafari, the newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has responded to speculation about a possible attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iran’s nuclear installations.

Jaafari replaced General Yahya Safavi last year after the latter made a speech in which he implicitly warned the mullahs that Iran’s military was not ready for war against far more powerful enemies.

Those familiar with Iranian military capabilities know that it is Safavi’s sober assessment, and not Jaafari’s bluster, that reflects the true situation.

The problem is that Jaafari can make his claim because he, and his political masters in Tehran, are convinced there would be no military action against their regime.

In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the then newly-minted President of the Islamic Republic and darling of the IRGC, unveiled a strategy based on the assumption that once George W. Bush is out of the White House, the United States would bite the bullet and accept a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic as “regional superpower” in the Middle East.

Two events convinced Ahmadinejad that his strategy was correct:

The first came in May 2006 when the Bush administration, then at the nadir of its unpopularity because of the situation in Iraq, joined the line of supplicant Europeans begging Tehran to negotiate a deal.

That unexpected shift in Washington’s policy produced the opposite effect.

Far from persuading Ahamdinejad that this was a good time to defuse the situation, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s attempt at nuance and multilateral diplomacy convinced Tehran that the Americans had blinked.

The second event that confirmed Ahmadinejad’s belief that “America cannot do a damn thing” came with last year’s National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). Using a language of obfuscation, the NIE claimed that Tehran had abandoned key aspect of its nuclear programm in 2003. The NIE undermined the whole case brought by the International Atomic Energy Agency against the Islamic Republic.

Every bully depends on the other side showing fear, that is how he manages to lord it over others. Like every other bully, however, this one too responds to feeling threatened…

Whatever one might say about Ahmadinejad, one thing is certain: he plays an open hand. He is convinced that the US does not have the stomach for a fight and that Bush is the last American president to even dream of pre-emptive war.

He thinks the dominant mood in the US, and the West in general, is one of pre-emptive surrender.

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The putrid little maggot, Ahmadeninajad, and his handlers the Ayatollahs know full well that Americans are loosing whatever taste for war they may haver left. The putrid little maggot, Ahmadeninajad, and his handlers the Ayatollahs know full well that Europeans prefer to “negotiate” and that they – the Iranians – can constantly extract more from the West in exchange for nothing, merely by showing intransigence! Our once brilliant Condi Rice is too steeped in Foggy Bottom’s Realpolitik, she’s too unwilling to recognize how unrealistic Realpolitik has proved throughout its history. And yet, while she was still the brilliant Dr. Condoleeza Rice, before she stepped into Colin Powell’s job, she seemed to have no problem recognizing Realpolitik for the horrible failure that it truly is. I must wonder how much that traitor extraordinaire, the man who saved Saddam Hussein’s neck twice, the illustrious Consigliere of the Royal House of Saud, James “F…the Jews” Baker, bought and paid for her services… hmnnn… I thought buying slaves was not only a thing of infamous past, but illegal…

Ahmadinejad may well be right: there is not going to be any war against the Islamic Republic.

Here is why: as soon as there are tangible moves, not just threats, leaked through The New Yorker’s investigative reporters, that could threaten the existence of he Khomeinist regime, Tehran will announce a temporary suspension of its uranium enrichment program in accordance with three United Nations’ Security Council resolutions.

Such an announcement will instantly defuse the situation, break the diplomatic coalition created by Bush, and, possibly, even inspire Nancy Pelosi to praise Ahmadinejad as a man of peace. To launch a war against Iran in such a situation would become politically impossible, even if John McCain is president.

Ah, yes! Pelosi has already hinted that she would be more than than willing to cuddle up with Ahmedinajad and Chavez, as she already did with Baby Assad. Not only were her promised much touted reforms to the corruption of Washignton’s Good Ole Boys’ (and Girls’) Club, mere campaign promises never meant to be kept, but her own sophomoric grasp of international politics threatens to destroy us. Then again, considering that a couple of hand picked George Soros’ staffers are now Nanci’s top staffers… it is quite obvious who’s calling the shots… Don’t you agree, gentle reader?

Taking measures that might hurt the people of Iran won’t do the trick. The mullahs are as concerned about the welfare of their people as Saddam Hussein was about that of the Iraqis and Robert Mugabe is of the Zimbabweans. Sanctions already imposed by the UN make life more difficult for the average Iranian but have little effect on the regime.

This means that the Islamic Republic will not, indeed cannot, offer any concessions unless faced with the prospect of regime change.

These fanatical cretins, bent on rebuilding the Persian Empire on a scale never seen before, care not a fig about their own people, they are all expendable! Yet… the West is unable to grasp that simple truth. Bullies are only capable of understanding that which directly threatens them and only them. Check out real history books, if you have the courage to know the real truth!

Ahmadinejad has said as much, albeit in different words.

He has castigated his predecessor Muhammad Khatami for accepting suspension in 2003 when the regime was not in danger. Khatami says he did so because at the time, shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, he feared that the Americans might make a right turn and march on Tehran as well.

In other words, it was fear of regime change that persuaded the mullahs to accept suspension five years ago. As soon as that fear was gone and Bush appeared to be headed for a political lynching in his own country, the program was resumed at an even faster pace.

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In other words, it was fear of regime change that persuaded the mullahs to accept suspension five years ago. As soon as that fear was gone and Bush appeared to be headed for a political lynching in his own country, the program was resumed at an even faster pace. Frankly, if Ahmedinajad had any sense of gratitude, he would amply reward the American MSM, George Soros, and the defeatocrats in both major parties in Congress. Then again, who knows what monies, what incentives, are changing hands or being offered as we speak?!?

Amir Taheri’s now turns to discuss awhat is wrong with the western mindset. Read on!

The way Western politicians talk about it, one gets the impression that the Iranian nuclear issue is a quirk of the mullahs that could be fixed with the threat of sticks and promise of carrots. It is not.

The Iranian nuclear issue has three layers.

The first concerns he power struggle in Tehran. Ahmadinejad has built his macho image on this issue. If he backs down he will be politically dead.

The second layer concerns the regime’s strategy for hegemony in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic needs tactical “nuclear parity” to guarantee it won’t be attacked with nuclear weapons as it proceeds to drive the Americans out of the Middle East, help destroy Israel as a Jewish state, and impose Khomeinism on the Arabs in the name of Islamic unity.

The third layer concerns the regime’s ambitions, spelled out by Ahmadinejad and others, to create an international coalition to challenge the global system dominated by the United States.

Ahmadinejad has already promised anti-American regimes in Latin America “full support and protection” against the “Great Satan” in Washington. Iran is already laying the foundations for an armaments industry in Venezuela. One day a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic may extend its nuclear umbrella to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador and, why not, even Cuba.

The Islamic Republic has been at war against the United States and the international system it leads for almost 30 years. This has been a low intensity war because the US and its allies have shied away from full-scale confrontation. The US has shown it has lots of power but not the courage to use even a fraction of it. The Islamic Republic’s power, on the other hand, is “tiny,” as Senator Barack Obama has noted. But the mullahs have been prepared to use that “tiny” power in full, with already devastating effects.

The issue is not how to avoid war with the Islamic Republic. It is how to end a war that has been going on for almost 30 years.

As in all wars there are three ways to end this one: surrender, make a deal, or win.

The issue is not how to avoid war with the Islamic Republic. It is how to end a war that has been going on for almost 30 years. So, how will we deal with Iran? Will we surrender? Then we better get used to our Western women wearing burqas and hijabs in fear of Iran’s Moral’s Police. We better understand, then, that abandoning our Western religions is either a necessity or we agree to die. Will we make a deal? Then we better understand that the Iranians, as in the past, will keep none of it and… we better get used to the idea that our Western women will be wearing burqas and hijabs in fear of Iran’s Moral’s Police. We better understand, then, that abandoning our Western religions is either a necessity or we agree to die.

So how does the putrid little maggot keep the pressure on the US and Europe? He actively and openly helps out both Shiite and Sunni insurgents in Iraq; he spends billions in help to Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Arabs already recognizer the threat why can’t the West?

The only alternative, gentle reader, is to win! But… how?!?!? We re already militarily overextended in Iraq nd Afghanistan! The solution, gentle reader, is much simpler than going to war, less costly and one that takes full advantage of Iranian discontent with the current regime, while automatically weakening its Latin American client states. It would take some gumption but little effort for the West to overtly and relentlessly support all the internal and exiled opposition to the Ayatollahs. The fear that would impose on these subhuman descendants of apes and pigs and their puppet maggots, would change their minds and their attitudes while making them far more tractable. The same intransigence the Iranians have heretofore shown, must be shown by the heretofore cowardly West. Not only will the Ayatollahs and the putrid little maggot have met their match, but they will quickly change course as they understand not that they too can effectively be threatened! But will the West rise to its former glory, or has it surrendered already?!?!?!?